TRADETHINK ARTICLES

The Importance of the Big Trades

August 1, 2008

By Chris Morse

In trend following it is widely known that the trend is your friend. Let’s examine the importance of the big trades. It is very important to have the trade discipline to stay in a large winning trade. As important is to also have the trade discipline to enter the next trade after a series of losing trades. The large movers are what will usually make a traders year. Let us discuss and illustrate why it is so important to get in the big trade and not get out of the move to early.

The adage goes ride your winners and cut your loses. The best way to do this is with a systematic approach to the markets being followed. We need to know when and where we are going to enter and exit a trade. You also need to know what market the next big trade may be in. I find a diversified portfolio approach works best to find the big trades each year.

In order to participate in the next big trade you first have to be following that market. In commodities there are several market sectors that can have the next important move. The main commodity market sectors are fuels, metals, currencies, grains, interest rates, softs and meats. To put this all together most successful traders will use some type of systematic approach to establish an arsenal of trade signal entries, exits and stops. You can develop your own methods or follow the signals and portfolios of a system developer like TradeThink.

Trend following type trading systems are designed to capture a piece a markets move when it is trending. Of course, to find the nice trend trades one has to go through periods of choppiness and consolidation in the markets. During the choppy times in the market a trading strategy will be looking for some type of strength or breakout to define a potential new trend. There will be signals given for trades that do not make the final cut and thus turn out to be losers. A losing trade must be entered then exited and a loss taken. Some wining trades will turn out to be losers. Through all of this the trader must keep the faith and have the discipline to keep executing in his trading method.

Those big winning trades are usually just down the path after many losing trades. You must stay the course and be patient in preparation for the big trade. You may not be completely aware once the big trade comes and know that you are actually in that big trade. This is why trade discipline is so important, because you will not know how the trade turns out until the trade is over. Many traders try to override this fact by perhaps exiting a winning position too soon. Exiting a winner to early may be one of the biggest downfalls of who would otherwise be successful traders. If you stay the coarse you will be rewarded.

Below you will see two charts for each market. The first chart will show a series of chop on small losing trades that will often precede a big winning trade. The second chart is that of the big trade.

Euro Currency - Choppy



You have to have trade discipline to stay with a strategy through the losers. If you stop trading during a series of losing trades you risk missing the next run-up.

Euro Currency - Big Trade
Entry 1.4471 Exit 1.5629 Points 888
888 points at 12.50 = $11,100



Had you stayed the couse in the above Euro trade you were rewarded.

Gold - Choppy



It is not always easy to keep taking losing trades.

Gold - Big Trade
Entry 848.00 Exit 993.40 Dollars 145.40
415.40 dollars at 100 = $14,540



The trader was rewarded with a big move in Gold above.

 

Soybeans – Choppy



You had to take a couple of these Bean losers back to back.

Soybeans - Big Trade
Entry 1408 Exit 1565 Cents 157
157 cents at 50.00 = $7,850



A trader that stuck with this Soybean trade was rewarded.


Wheat-Choppy



Remember a series of losing trades will often precede a series of winning trades.

 

Wheat - Big Trade
Entry 539.25 Exit 1456.25 Cents 917
917 cents at 50.00 = $45,850



The four big trades above accounted for over $79,000. The losers before the big trades accounted for about only $17,000. That is a net of $62,000.

Things to Remember

A trade does not have its official win or loss until after the exit. Do not pull out of any trades early. Many will pull a trade prematurely. They will see a big winner and want to take profits too soon. The big winning trades can amount to a significant portion of yearly profits. Taking profits too early can be a big mistake.

Take every trade. Do not second guess a valid trading signal if you are serious about your trading strategy. Place your order and enter the trade. Many people cherry pick trades. Usually when someone thinks a market will keep in a trading range or it can not move any higher or lower is when it will keep moving and this is when you might just have found the next big trade.

About the Author

Chris Morse is the Developer of the TradeThink trading system. He has been involved in the development of trading strategies for nearly ten years. Mr. Morse developed a very robust system which is now in private use at one of the largest FCM's and has earned sizable returns for the last 3 years. Mr. Morse now focuses his time exclusively on developing and managing his systems